Attribution That Actually Works: Beyond First and Last Touch

Episode Overview

Attribution is one of the most misunderstood topics in marketing and revenue analytics. Today, we’re cutting through the complexity to build a practical attribution framework you can implement starting this week.

Why Most Attribution Models Fail

The typical attribution journey goes like this:

1. Start with last-touch (everything gets credit for the final interaction)
2. Realize that’s wrong, switch to first-touch
3. Get frustrated with both, invest in expensive attribution platform
4. Platform requires perfect data you don’t have
5. Back to last-touch with extra complexity

Let’s break this cycle.

The Attribution Spectrum

Attribution isn’t binary—it’s a spectrum based on your business model, sales cycle, and data maturity:

Simple Attribution (Good for most teams)

• Last-touch with content assist
• First-touch with nurture visibility
• Source-level reporting with journey context

Intermediate Attribution

• Position-based (40/20/40 model)
• Time decay models
• Custom rule-based weighting

Advanced Attribution

• Algorithmic/data-driven attribution
• Incrementality testing
• Multi-touch with ML optimization

Most teams should start at Simple, not Advanced.

The Content-Assist Attribution Model

Here’s my recommended starting point for B2B teams with 3+ month sales cycles:

Primary Credit: Last meaningful interaction Assist Credit: All prior touches in the journey Weighted by: Recency and engagement depth

Implementation Steps

1. Tag Every Touchpoint

   • Organic social engagement
   • Content downloads
   • Email interactions
   • Demo requests
   • Sales conversations

2. Define “Meaningful”

   • Engagement duration > 2 minutes
   • Multiple page visits in session
   • High-intent content (pricing, case studies, demos)
   • Direct sales interactions

3. Track the Journey

   • Use UTM parameters consistently
   • Connect web sessions to CRM records
   • Log all content interactions
   • Capture referral sources

4. Report with Context

   • Primary source gets attribution
   • Full journey visible in dashboard
   • Assist metrics tracked separately
   • Time to convert from each touch

Position-Based Attribution (40/20/40)

For teams ready to move beyond last-touch:

• 40% to first touch (awareness credit)
• 20% distributed across middle touches (nurture credit)
• 40% to conversion touch (closing credit)

This balances the “what brought them in” with “what closed them” while acknowledging nurture.

When to Use Position-Based

• Sales cycles 30-90 days
• 5-15 typical touchpoints
• Multiple teams involved (marketing + sales)
• Need to justify top-of-funnel spend

Time Decay Attribution

My preferred model for longer sales cycles:

Recent touches get more credit, but early touches still count.

7-day decay: 50% credit reduction per week back 30-day decay: 30% credit reduction per month back

Formula

Credit = Base Value × (0.5 ^ (days_ago / decay_period))

This naturally weights recent engagement while preserving early touch visibility.

Building Your Attribution Stack (No Expensive Tools Required)

Minimum Viable Attribution System:

1. UTM Parameters (Free)

   • Consistent taxonomy
   • Campaign, source, medium, content
   • Automated via tool integrations

2. Google Analytics 4 (Free)

   • Event tracking
   • Conversion paths
   • Path exploration reports

3. CRM Native Features (Included)

   • HubSpot campaign influence
   • Salesforce campaign attribution
   • Contact timeline tracking

4. Spreadsheet Models (Free)

   • Export journey data
   • Apply weighting rules
   • Calculate attributed revenue

Total Cost: $0 (beyond tools you already have)

Common Attribution Mistakes

Mistake #1: Overvaluing Direct Traffic

Direct often means “we lost the attribution data.” Investigate before celebrating direct conversions.

Mistake #2: Ignoring Dark Social

People share links via Slack, text, email. These show as direct. Look for time-based patterns.

Mistake #3: Perfect Attribution Paralysis

Don’t wait for perfect data. Start with directional insights and iterate.

Mistake #4: Attribution Without Action

Attribution is useless if it doesn’t change behavior. Build action into your reporting.

The Attribution Decision Framework

Use this to decide your attribution approach:

Use Last-Touch If:

• Sales cycle < 14 days
• < 3 average touches
• Limited marketing touchpoints
• Just need directional data

Use Position-Based If:

• Sales cycle 30-90 days
• Multiple marketing channels
• Clear journey stages
• Need to balance awareness and conversion credit

Use Time Decay If:

• Sales cycle > 90 days
• Many nurture touches
• Long consideration period
• Want to weight recent engagement

Use Algorithmic If:

• Massive data sets (10,000+ conversions/month)
• Complex buyer journeys
• Resources to maintain models
• Need predictive capabilities

Implementing This Week

Day 1: Audit current UTM usage and clean up taxonomy Day 2: Define your “meaningful interaction” criteria Day 3: Map your typical buyer journey touchpoints Day 4: Choose your attribution model (start simple) Day 5: Build your reporting dashboard

Week 2: Start tracking and look for patterns Month 2: Refine based on learnings Quarter 2: Consider upgrading to more sophisticated model

The Bottom Line

Attribution doesn’t require six-figure tools or PhD-level statistics. It requires:

1. Consistent data collection
2. Clear definitions
3. Appropriate model for your business
4. Action based on insights

Start simple, measure consistently, and upgrade only when the simple approach stops giving you actionable insights.

Next week, we’ll cover building dashboards that actually drive decisions.

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Questions about attribution? Comment below or connect on LinkedIn.